Iran at the Crossroads

Adel Darwish  reports on the power struggle inside Iran 

Two focuses of Iran's turbulent relations with the West held media attention as The Middle East went to press. 

The first was the trial of the mayor of Teheran, Gholamhossein Karbaschi on charges of "corruption". The trial was seen as a showdown forced by hardline Islamic clerics hoping to sabotage the moderate and modernising policy of President Mohammed Khatami. 

The second was the more amusing, but by no means less significant, football game between the United States and Iran in France. 

The Iranian football team is also on trial. The result of their match - on 21 June - is not judged according to the game's rules or the players' performance on the pitch, but in the context of the Islamic Republic's 19 year old war against the 'Great Satan', the name given to the United States by the late Imam Ayatollah Khomeini. 

An encounter of a similar kind took place during the Atlanta Olympics two years ago when an American wrestler beat his Iranian rival to a gold medal. Official Iranian newspapers protested at the outcome saying "criminal" America was not worthy of hosting the games. 

Therefore, the announcement by members of the Iranian football team that they would exchange shirts with the Americans after the game regardless of the result has alarmed the ruling clergy. The long standing brief to Iranian officials - whether in sport or any other field - is that they should never ever shake hands with Americans they meet at international gatherings. 

The hardliners controlled media of the Islamic Republic was dismayed when Iranian audiences applauded American and Iranian wrestlers as they shook hands and hugged each other during a friendly match in Teheran last February. The newspaper Jomhuri Islami (The Islamic Republic) sees the International sport arena as a dangerous conspiracy against Islam. "The Americans used sports to normalise relations with China and they are using the same tactics with Iran,'' the paper warned. 

The Iranian national psyche seems to be rather schizophrenic when it comes to dealing with the Western world. 

While the Islamic hardliners - encouraged by the spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - want to keep their puritan Islamic Republic isolated from the the "corruption" of the West, millions of people poured on to the streets in a spontaneous party when their footballers reached the world cup finals. 

Some semi-official organs, individuals and organisations are helping President Khatami's officials - still a minority in his own government - to secretly play host to a handful of American scholars. Tony Cordesman and veteran Middle East specialist Judith Kipper went on a visit to Teheran in May. Businessmen, including Rupert Murdoch, visited the Iranian capital and discussed joint ventures. At the same time the hardliners incite newspapers to warn against such contacts. 

It is in this context that the trial of the Mayor of Teheran, Gholamhossein Karbaschi - whose arrest led to clashes as students demonstrated demanding his release -should also be seen as putting President Khatami's reformist policy on trial. It is interesting to note that the mayor was put on trial accused of "corruption". In the Islamic Republic phrase-book the term is almost exclusively associated with negative western influence and the United States. They also hope to get at President Khatami. Mr Karbaschi is the President's man, and the corruption charges levelled against him are said to involve the use of public funds to help the outcome of the election, which brought Khatami to power last year. It is almost like putting Khatami's policies on trial, as one western diplomat observed. 

Hardliners representing the interests of the clergy are still a majority in the Iranian parliament - the Al Majlis - and also hold key positions in the administration. Most importantly, they control the media and the judiciary system. 

Angered by student leaflets accusing it of prosecuting Karbaschi because he masterminded last year's unexpected landslide victory of President Khatami, the conservative-led judiciary promised a public hearing for the case. 

It was an unusual piece of courtroom drama as over 40 journalists - some foreign - were allowed into the hearing. Mr Karbaschi, combative and confident, didn't need much help from his two lawyers as he went on the attack under the glare of a battery of television cameras. Knowing he stood as a symbol of the reformist camp, Karbaschi questioned the competence of the judge and the court to try him. Karbaschi described the charges against him, namely that he misdirected official funds to support political cronies, as "an absolute pack of lies". 

Flanked by giant portraits of the late Imam Khomeini and his successor, Ayatollah Khamenei, the judge, Hojatoleslam Gholamhossein Mohseini, did not flinch. 

He remained cool, refuted the mayor's argument and adjourned the case for four days. But observers believe the case will drag on for weeks. Iranian sources indicate that the regime's rival wings are working on some sort of compromise behind the scenes. 

Moderates have threatened to launch a counter-offensive by bringing evidence to the courts of far more serious charges of corruption by institutions controlled by hardliners, according to Iranian sources. 

"If the trial goes on for too long,'' said Ibrahim Yazdi, who heads a small tolerated opposition group, "it could open a Pandora's box." 

The government wants to gloss over the episode and avoid a display of open conflict that would undermined President Khatami's fence mending work with Europe. 

Khatami, in an interview with CNN in January, described the United States as a "great nation" and made clear his interest in establishing a dialogue with Washington, thus establishing a precedent for an Iranian President since the Islamic take-over of 1979. 

In Brussels on 19 May a new era of relations between Iran and the European Union was opened, following the first positive talks between a senior official from the British Foreign Office and his Iranian counterpart in Tehran. 

Derek Plumbly, director of Middle East Command at the Foreign Office, and a senior Iranian official focused on the agenda for more detailed meetings on political, economic and cultural relations, which are expected to lead to further contacts between ministers. 

Several talk sessions between the two sides are planned during June and July. If the substantive talks produce equally positive results they could pave the way for a delegation to Teheran headed by Derek Fatchett, the Foreign Office Minister for the Middle East, according to British diplomats. The visit would be the first of its kind since 1979. 

Foreign Office sources attribute the breakthrough in diplomatic relations, which have been marred by crisis for 19 years, to the perceived moderate leadership of President Khatami. 

The Foreign Office last month cautioned against "premature expectation" as some European observers anticipated that the "step-by-step" approach might eventually lead to the return of a British ambassador to Teheran. The embassy has been headed by a charge d'affaires since 1990. 

In the 1980s, Britain's relations with Teheran were based on a British interests section in the Swedish Embassy. 

Britain's European partners, especially the French and the Italians, would like to see a speedy normalisation between London and Teheran. European oil companies are facing the threat of American sanctions against companies trading with Iran. European companies seek deals with Iran to reach for the oil and gas of the Caspian basin, although the US ended the threat during the EU summit with President Clinton in London last May. But there are fears that the Republican dominated Congress could reverse the situation. 

The Europeans see a British-Iranian rapprochement as a boost to an EU collective diplomacy independent from that of the US and based on European economic interest. President Khatami also sees an EU change of heart as a first major step to end his nations international isolation. 

While a positive atmosphere is growing between Iran and the EU, there remain five key issues that could still undermine the improving relations, unless President Khatami can demonstrate that he has the political power to resolve them. 

The biggest stumbling block for Britain is the fatty (death sentence) imposed on British author Salman Rushdie in 1989 by Ayatollah Khomeini for publishing The Satanic Verses. Teheran has repeatedly said the fatty cannot be revoked. The European media will always whip-up this issue, because of the principle of free speech. The matter is also linked with Teheran's poor human rights record and its continuing role in state-sponsored terrorism. Iran's weapons of mass destruction programme continues to worry almost everyone, while its position on the Middle East peace process remains unhelpful. 

Although Britain hands over the EU presidency to Austria on 30 June, it will remain part of the EU troika of ministers for another six months - the troika is made up of the outgoing president, the current president and the incoming candidate. The troika would probably go to Teheran. 

The EU had previously held a "critical dialogue" with Iran, but those talks did not progress beyond some heated argument over Salman Rushdie. The critical dialogue was suspended after Iran was accused of being behind a terrorist bombing outrage in a Berlin restaurant. 

But Western diplomats point to the current talks as being "aimed at giving maximum encouragement to President Khatami to pursue his moderate policies, which are opposed by Iran's more radical clerics who have already gone on the offensive." 

Western observers as well as liberals in Teheran see the clerics' move against Mayor Karbaschi as the first showdown with President Khatami and there will be more to come. 

The government is keen to foster a facade of unity, particularly after last months bombings in Teheran by an exiled opposition group, hence the speculation about working out a deal regarding Mayor Karbaschi. Iranian sources hint at a face saving formula such as sentencing the mayor to jail and then pardoning him. But even if a quick deal defuses the situation for now, there is little doubt the hardliners will force a showdown on another front. 

Khatami's opponents enjoy a majority in parliament and still control many centres of power - including the security forces and the judiciary - but it is clear they feel increasingly marginalised and are desperate to claw back lost authority. His relatively liberal ideas - embraced by the young and by women - are an anathema to the clerics. His conspicuous moves to improve relations with the West, dismantle the foundation of organisations like the revolutionary guards who have been acting as moral guardians, who harass young women on the streets for minor "offences", such as wearing make up, thus earning themselves the nickname "the lipstick brigade." 

Extreme rightwingers are continually trying to sabotage Khatami's administration but have been forced to retreat each time, Yazdi said. However, a Western diplomat cautioned that the next move by the President's enemies could be far more drastic: "There is a distinct possibility that out of desperation the hardliners could do something really outrageous to derail the Khatami train."