|
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
is facing new rivals daily, not from the left but from his own conservative
camp. Environment Minister Rafael Eitan became the fourth right-wing candidate
to throw his hat into the ring on 30 December last year. Observers note
the campaign to get ready for the election is like a family feud in public.
Many wonder why the campaign is taking that long. According to Israel's
constitution, a government, that fails, must be replaced within 60 days.
The Prime Minister and the opposition Labour Party struck a deal to dissolve
rather than topple the government, allowing them to negotiate an election
date, now set for May 17, with a liekly second round on June 1.
During this period, the national budget, secular-religious relations,
the war in Lebanon and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process will just
become pawns in the election game, with every party trying to grab or move
a few squares a time..
Some sceptics say Mr Netanyahu might be bidding for a way to get reelected,
via a combination of shock-therapy policies and broadening his alliance.
He has already been talking to Arab Knesset members that he would push
forward the peace process in return for their support, while almost in
the same breath, pledging the opposite to the settlers - still his allies.
By the end of December it was leaked to the press that he continued to
formulate contingency plans to withdraw from the Golan Heights - the plans
were inherited from Labour Government.
But attacks continue on his character with stories on how he makes
deals behind the scene. He was caught out on an official leak the he had
promised Yossi Peled, a former senior army officer, the defence minister
on his Likud list. It was an attempt to ginger up his defence minister,
Yitzhak Mrdechai - favoured by the Americans to replace Mr Netanyahu- as
he threatened to desert and join a new centre party.
Mr Peled was infuriated when he realised the Game that Mr Netanyahu
was playing. '' I won't be a pawn,'' declared Mr Peled as he ended his
support for Mr Netanyahu.
On 30 December Mr Netanyahu he was assailed by a Labour representative
for putting a $230 bottle of wine on the state's tab while dining in New
York City, and he agreed to repay the nation.
In the past few months the threat of being toppled hung over Mr Netanyahu
affecting every move. He tried legislation by blackmail: Pass this bill
or we bring down the government.
Now, the threat is meaningless; yet the bartering goes on as part of
the campaign, while Mr Netanyahu hopes that the four months remaining would
give his rivals enough rope to hang themselves. For instance, Avraham Ravitz,
the finance committee chairman and head of the United Torah Judaism faction,
knowing that most candidates want to woo religious Jews, is promising to
hold budget legislation hostage by tying it to an issue important to strict
Orthodox factions. He said would not bring the budget legislation to its
next reading until Parliament approves a bill that in effect bans Reform
and Conservative Jews from serving on the country's all-powerful religious
councils. One, Rabbi Ehud Bandel, predicted a breakdown in relations with
Jews abroad if the bill became law, saying it would discourage their financial
support of Israel.
Although there is formidable challenge from the ranks of the right,
Mr Netanyahu projects the idea that the race is between him and "the left,"
a term he uses as a slur and has so far attached to three fairly middle-of-the-road
establishment figures: Ehud Barak, the Labour Party leader and former army
chief of staff; Amnon Lipkin-Shahak, another former chief of staff, who
is expected to announce his candidacy as a centrist soon, and Dan Meridor,
of the Likud Party, who defected to run as a centre candidate, too.
For most Israelis, on the right, the question is who will be faithful
to Netanyahu. Yitzhak Shamir, a former Likud party prime minister, set
the tone at the start of the campaign by denouncing Mr Netanyahu as an
"angel of destruction," presiding over the disintegration of the Likud.
The good news for Mr Netanyahuo was that Ehud Olmert, the mayor of
Jerusalem, decided not to oppose him for the leadership of the party. Yitzhak
Mordechai is excepted to a defect to Mr Shahak's as yet unformed centre
party, in what would be a blow to the Prime Minister's candidacy.
The Former foreign and finance minister David Levy, who deserted Mr
Netanyahu last January, is reportedly set to join the Labour Party. His
negotiation with Mr Netanyahu to rejoin his Cabinet broke down increasing
the bitterness between the two men. Even Ariel Sharon, the foreign minister
and a popular war hero, who has stood fiercely by Mr Netanyahu's side as
his most powerful ally, told reporters he would consider running for Prime
Minister "under certain conditions." Some speculated that he might
be tempted to jump in and take over the Likud if Mr Mordechai bails out.
So far, the three right-wing candidates who have declared their candidacies
do not present a significant threat to Netanyahu, although they would leech
support from him. They are Uzi Landau, a member of Knesset who is a challenger
from within the fragmenting Likud; Benny (Benjamin) Begin - the son of
the former leader Menachem Begin, a geologist and ultra-nationalist who
left the Likud in disgust protesting at the Wye River Agreement, and Rafael
Eitan, a former army chief of staff and leader of the far-right Tsomet
movement.
While Mr Netanyahu may have retained the support of the street (so
far, since this could change over the next few weeks pending many factors
including Palestinians and attacks from Lebanon by Hezbullah,) he has lost
the trust of most of the right-wing leadership.
The difference is not over policies; it is personal. "Political disputes
are not what muddied the relationship," Amnon Danker wrote in Maariv, citing
the close relationship between other politicians who strongly disagree.
"The problem is one of a terrible character."
However, so far Netanyahu still has the better chance of getting the
highest votes. The serious threat would be an alliance between Mr Shahak
and his centre party, and Labour leader Mr Barak. However the attempts
has failed so far - despite intervention by Israeli President Ezer Weizman
- who would like to see the back of Mr Netanyahu.
Most observers agree that the centre ground will be the real battleground
while peace or war with the Palestinian will overshadow most issues of
the campaign. However one western diplomat told The Middle East News: ''
the nightmare scenario would be a repetition of the 1996 result; this would
frustrate Washington plans in the region.'' |
